Tuesday, May 2, 2017

Education the Best Predictor for Trump Support in PA Counties

Trump marked the first 100 days milestone of his campaign with a rally in Harrisburg the State Capitol touting his achievements and his plan to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act.  In my last post I looked at uninsured trends in the state.  This time I will look at uninsured, poverty rates, educational attainment rates and changes in substantiated child abuse rates and how they correlate with Trump's % of the vote in each county in 2016.


Map showing changes in substantiated child abuse cases from 2011 to 2015 in PA Counties.  From CNHI News and the PA DHS Child Abuse Report (The map was wrinkled in my folder)
The map above shows changes in substantiated Child abuse cases from 2011 to 2015 with the counties in red showing a 275% or more increase in cases.  Statewide there was an increase of 23.3% in cases.  This variable plus the other variables were considered in the correlation table below.  The numbers in the table below are correlation coefficients with significant ones in bold.  A positive coefficient of means that as one variable increases the other has a corresponding increase.  A negative correlation of means that for every increase in one variable there is a corresponding decrease in the other.  


Corr w Philly
Uninsured: %
% in poverty
% increase in Child Abuse
Bachelors
Some college
HS Grad
HS Only
LT High School
HS comp
Trump %
Uninsured: %
1









% in poverty
0.34
1








% increase in Child Abuse
-0.03
0.10
1







Bachelors
-0.41
-0.45
-0.16
1






Some college
-0.49
-0.47
-0.13
0.86
1





HS Grad
-0.73
-0.45
0.03
0.63
0.78
1




HS Only
0.35
0.42
0.18
-0.85
-0.97
-0.61
1



LT High School
0.73
0.45
-0.03
-0.63
-0.78
-1.00
0.61
1


HS comp
0.03
0.03
-0.04
-0.06
-0.13
0.00
0.17
0.00
1

Trump %
0.14
0.03
0.19
-0.77
-0.66
-0.31
0.71
0.31
0.28
1


The variables that are most strongly associated with Trump's % of the vote in each county are the educational attainment variables.  The strongest negative correlation with Trump's vote is the % of the county with a bachelor's degree or higher with a coefficient of -0.77.  The scatter plot shows that as the % with a bachelor's or higher increases, Trump's % of the vote decreases accounting for 58.4% of the variability in this relationship (if 100% of variability were accounted for, all of the counties would form a perfect straight line).  The one county that the model does not fit very well is Philadelphia which had 15% of the vote for Trump but had 25% with a bachelor's degree or higher which is close to the state rate.  To look at the effect that Philadelphia County has I recreated the table and scatterplot with it excluded.  27 pairwise correlations are significant above.



The correlation table below shows more significant relationships for Trump's % of the vote with the uninsured and poverty rates having a a weakly positive relationship of 0.33 and 0.30 respectively.  Looking at the % with a high school (HS) degree or higher there is a weak negative relationship (-0.52) but looking at the high school completion rate (those who enter HS in the 9th grade who finish) there is a positive relationship.  Doing some subtraction to find the % in each county who have a HS degree only and those with less than a HS degree the % in the county with a HS degree only has a strong positive relationship with a coefficient of 0.74 accounting for 55% of the variability.  Adding Philadelphia to the data had little effect on the correlation as can be seen in the scatterplot below.



Corr wo Philly
Uninsured: 
%
% in 
poverty
% increase in 
Child Abuse
Bachelors
Some 
college
HS 
Grad
HS 
Only
LT High 
School
HS 
comp
Trump %
Uninsured: %
1









% in poverty
0.24
1








% increase in Child Abuse
0.00
0.15
1







Bachelors
-0.44
-0.52
-0.15
1






Some coll
-0.52
-0.54
-0.13
0.86
1





HS Grad
-0.70
-0.39
0.01
0.67
0.82
1




HS Only
0.41
0.54
0.17
-0.86
-0.98
-0.68
1



LT High School
0.70
0.39
-0.01
-0.67
-0.82
-1.00
0.68
1


HS comp
0.04
0.04
-0.04
-0.05
-0.13
0.00
0.16
0.00
1

Trump %
0.33
0.30
0.17
-0.84
-0.73
-0.52
0.74
0.52
0.31
1


Philadelphia is an outlier for PA counties in much the same way as DC is for the rest of the states.  Child abuse case increases were not correlated with any other variables.  In the next post I will look at these variables in a multiple regression model.  Below is the raw data for the analysis. 

Name
Uninsured
%
% in
poverty
% increase in
Child Abuse
Bachelors
Or higher
Some
college
HS
Grad
HS
Only
LT High
School
HS
comp
Trump
%
Pennsylvania
7.6
13.1
23.30%
28.6
63
89
26.2
10.8
85
48.58
Adams County, PA
7.9
8.5
-40.3
21.7
53
87.3
34.8
12.7
92
66.17
Allegheny County, PA
6
12.2
14.8
37.8
77
93.5
16.3
6.5
89
39.91
Armstrong County, PA
7.2
12.6
16
15
54
88.9
34.6
11.1
89
74.27
Beaver County, PA
5.5
13.1
37.5
22.8
66
91.7
25.6
8.3
74
57.64
Bedford County, PA
8.5
13.9
275
13.5
47
86.0
38.7
14.0
92
82.72
Berks County, PA
8.6
12.6
17.7
23.2
57
85.1
28.4
14.9
84
52.78
Blair County, PA
6.4
15.3
12.5
19.6
54
90.5
36.2
9.5
88
71.27
Bradford County, PA
8.1
13
-4.3
17.6
46
88.5
42.7
11.5
89
70.57
Bucks County, PA
5.8
6.3
-31.7
37.4
72
93.5
21.7
6.5
92
47.74
Butler County, PA
4.9
9.5
-19.2
32.3
72
93.0
20.8
7.0
95
66.37
Cambria County, PA
6.6
14.9
65.2
19.1
58
89.6
31.6
10.4
90
67
Cameron County, PA
7.4
13.3
100
15.7
59
89.5
30.5
10.5
72.69
Carbon County, PA
7.1
11.5
9.5
15.5
52
88.7
36.9
11.3
81
65.13
Centre County, PA
7.9
16.1
110
41.4
72
93.2
21.3
6.8
92
46.32
Chester County, PA
6.4
6
-20.3
49.1
75
92.7
17.5
7.3
89
43.2
Clarion County, PA
8.1
17.4
322.2
20.1
56
88.7
33.1
11.3
94
71.72
Clearfield County, PA
7.3
16.6
41.9
13.2
45
87.1
41.7
12.9
89
72.75
Clinton County, PA
7.6
16
66.7
16.9
52
87.1
35.5
12.9
93
65.1
Columbia County, PA
6.7
15
18.8
21.1
54
88.5
34.0
11.5
88
63.78
Crawford County, PA
9.8
15.3
-21.2
19.8
52
87.7
35.4
12.3
90
66.65
Cumberland County, PA
6.8
7.3
102
32.7
66
91.5
26.0
8.5
90
56.8
Dauphin County, PA
7.4
13.6
146
28.4
63
88.8
25.8
11.2
84
46.51
Delaware County, PA
6.8
10.4
27
36
69
92.2
23.0
7.8
76
37.18
Elk County, PA
6
9.3
220
16.8
53
91.1
38.1
8.9
91
69.49
Erie County, PA
6.9
17.1
-18.3
26.1
59
90.8
31.3
9.2
87
48.57
Fayette County, PA
7.5
20.1
67.5
14.2
48
86.8
38.7
13.2
79
64.33
Forest County, PA
8.3
24.3
66.7
8.5
16
80.5
64.7
19.5
70.1
Franklin County, PA
9.4
9.4
23.4
19
50
86.0
35.8
14.0
86
71.37
Fulton County, PA
7.8
11.6
42.9
13.1
46
85.1
39.5
14.9
86
84.09
Greene County, PA
6.5
15.1
300
17.7
45
86.9
42.0
13.1
85
68.82
Huntingdon County, PA
7
14.3
80
14.3
44
88.8
45.1
11.2
89
73.55
Indiana County, PA
8.7
18.2
-4.3
22.6
58
88.5
30.4
11.5
94
65.89
Jefferson County, PA
8.8
14.6
58.3
14.6
49
88.6
39.3
11.4
92
78
Juniata County, PA
9.9
12.8
-81.3
13.1
37
81.7
44.8
18.3
94
79.14
Lackawanna County, PA
7.8
15.3
46.6
25.9
63
89.9
27.2
10.1
83
46.77
Lancaster County, PA
11.1
10.6
0
25.2
53
84.5
31.0
15.5
90
57.2
Lawrence County, PA
7.1
17.5
-16.7
19.7
60
89.2
29.5
10.8
93
62.4
Lebanon County, PA
8.7
11.6
89.7
19.6
52
85.7
33.5
14.3
86
65.53
Lehigh County, PA
8.6
12.1
18.8
28.5
62
87.4
25.0
12.6
84
45.77
Luzerne County, PA
7.8
15.1
52.1
21.4
59
88.9
29.8
11.1
87
58.29
Lycoming County, PA
7.2
14.8
46.6
20.4
57
88.0
31.3
12.0
87
70.46
Mc Kean County, PA
7.2
16.9
-20.7
16.7
48
89.7
41.7
10.3
90
71.4
Mercer County, PA
7.9
14.2
76.2
21.5
56
89.1
33.2
10.9
93
60.3
Mifflin County, PA
10.7
15.4
57.9
11.6
43
82.2
39.2
17.8
89
75.77
Monroe County, PA
8.5
12.7
12.7
23
64
89.7
26.2
10.3
89
47.86
Montgomery County, PA
5.3
6.6
8.6
46.9
78
93.8
15.8
6.2
94
37.44
Montour County, PA
5
9
50
28.8
61
89.4
28.3
10.6
88
61.8
Northampton County, PA
6.9
8.8
-10.7
27.2
66
89.8
23.6
10.2
73
49.98
Northumberland County, PA
7.3
13.1
23.8
14.6
45
85.6
40.6
14.4
87
69.43
Perry County, PA
9.3
9.6
0
16
55
88.5
33.4
11.5
91
73.81
Philadelphia County, PA
11
25.4
-9.2
25.4
58
82.0
23.7
18.0
88
15.37
Pike County, PA
8.6
10.9
200
23.7
63
91.0
28.3
9.0
70
61.51
Potter County, PA
7.8
14.3
0
15.7
51
87.8
37.2
12.2
92
80.31
Schuylkill County, PA
7.9
13
15.8
15.4
51
87.5
36.1
12.5
69.99
Snyder County, PA
10.5
11.7
38.9
16.5
45
82.4
37.7
17.6
89
71.66
Somerset County, PA
8.7
14.4
-36
15.3
47
86.5
39.8
13.5
87
76.54
Sullivan County, PA
8.9
13.5
300
16.1
47
89.6
42.7
10.4
93
73.05
Susquehanna County, PA
9.3
12.6
-17.2
17.1
49
89.1
40.5
10.9
68.34
Tioga County, PA
8.6
13.1
72.2
19.6
55
88.4
33.0
11.6
95
74.29
Union County, PA
8.9
12.4
45.5
20.5
46
83.9
37.5
16.1
88
60.81
Venango County, PA
7.3
13.5
22.2
15.8
50
89.0
39.0
11.0
95
68.62
Warren County, PA
7.1
12.2
-30.8
18.1
55
90.5
35.4
9.5
90
67.68
Washington County, PA
5.7
10.1
29.2
27.4
67
91.3
24.5
8.7
89
60.51
Wayne County, PA
8.1
13.3
-13.6
19.7
50
89.3
39.7
10.7
90
67.63
Westmoreland County, PA
5.9
11.3
-1.5
26.4
68
92.7
25.0
7.3
94
64.01
Wyoming County, PA
6.9
11.1
200
18.2
50
91.2
40.9
8.8
91
67.23
York County, PA
7.1
10.4
21.9
22.8
57
88.3
31.8
11.7
94
62.4
 

**Related Posts**

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2014 Income and Poverty Update for Pennsylvania and Cambria County

 

Hate Groups and Trump's Vote%: Predictive effect present when education and poverty are considered

 

More Hate Groups in States Where Trump and Clinton Win (and in DC Where He Lost)