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Friday, April 21, 2017

Trends in Cambria County Uninsured Show The Effect of Medicaid Expansion

The SAHIE estimates for every county in the US are out for 2015.  Last week I posted on state level estimates, other state level measures, and Trump's % of the vote.  This week I thought I would focus exclusively on uninsured and poverty in my native county, Cambria County in Pennsylvania.

The graph above shows the trend in uninsured rates for the US in the blue line, Pennsylvania in the black line, and Cambria County (CC) in the green line from 2006-2015.  The blank area in the lines from 2007 to 2008 are there because the Census Bureau changed the method they used to measure the uninsured rates.  

The graph shows a peak in the uninsured rates for 2010 for the US, PA, and Cambria, the year the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) was passed, with the US having the highest rate at 17.6% followed by PA and Cambria being virtually tied at 12.1% and 12% respectively.  The rates for all three decreased significantly by 2014, the year the ACA was fully implemented) with a 3.3% decrease for the US, a 1.4% decrease for PA and a 1.5% decrease for Cambria.  

In 2015 PA Governor Tom Wolf implemented Medicaid expansion when the previous Governor refused to do so.  In 2015 the rate for the US decreased from 13.5% to 10.9% a decreased of 2.6%.  For PA it decreased from 10.2% to 7.6%, a decrease of 2.6%.  For Cambria County, it decreased from 8.9% to 6.6%. a decrease of 2.3%.  The rates for Cambria and PA began to diverge in 2011 and 2012.  Trends in poverty and income levels may shed light on the reasons for this divergence.

The above graph shows that there was an increase in the poverty rates for Cambria with no corresponding increase in PA's rate in 2012 and 2013.  As Medicaid at the time was given to those who met the federal definition of poverty at the time, this suggests that more individuals there qualified for medicaid.  The expansion of Medicaid in 2015 created a similar decrease in the uninsured in both Cambria and PA.  The trends in median seen below show that the county does lag behind the US and PA.  The low income levels in the county suggest less income stratification there than in PA or the US.

Below are the trends in the uninsured for PA and its 67 counties from 2008 to 2015.  The counties which had the highest uninsured rates previously, Philadelphia and Sullivan, had large decreases in their rates after Medicaid expansion was implemented.  You can see how your county fares.


County
% Uninsured 2008
% Uninsured 2009
% Uninsured 2010
% Uninsured 2011
% Uninsured 2012
% Uninsured 2013
% Uninsured 2014
% Uninsured 2015
Pennsylvania
10.6
11.7
12.1
12
11.7
11.6
10.2
7.6
Adams
11.6
12.4
12.4
12.5
12.3
12.4
10.2
7.9
Allegheny
9.1
10.4
10.4
10.3
10.2
9.8
8
6
Armstrong
12.2
11.8
12.1
12.1
11.3
11.8
9.6
7.2
Beaver
9.7
9.9
10.2
10.9
10.1
9.8
8.7
5.5
Bedford
12.8
12.8
14.4
14.3
13.7
12.7
11.6
8.5
Berks
10.4
12.4
12.4
12.7
13.1
12.3
11.7
8.6
Blair
10.3
11.8
12.2
11.2
11.2
10.9
9.4
6.4
Bradford
11.6
12.9
13.8
13.4
13.1
12.8
10.9
8.1
Bucks
7.6
8
8.8
8.7
8.7
8.5
6.9
5.8
Butler
8.7
9.8
9.7
9.6
9.1
8.6
7.2
4.9
Cambria
11.1
12.1
12
11.2
10.6
10.4
8.9
6.6
Cameron
12.5
13
13.1
12.4
11.8
11.9
10.2
7.4
Carbon
11.6
11.9
13.4
12.4
12.2
12.2
10.5
7.1
Centre
10.6
11.2
12.6
11.8
12
11.6
9.4
7.9
Chester
7.9
8.5
9.5
9.5
8.8
8.8
8.6
6.4
Clarion
12.7
13.6
13.8
13.5
12.4
12.1
11.3
8.1
Clearfield
12.6
13.5
13.2
12.7
11.8
12.7
10.5
7.3
Clinton
11.5
12.6
13.4
13.8
11.9
13.7
11.2
7.6
Columbia
11.3
11.9
12
11.9
10.2
11.1
9.7
6.7
Crawford
13.2
14.1
14.6
14.8
13.8
13.7
12.6
9.8
Cumberland
9.3
9.9
9.7
9.7
9.7
9.6
8.8
6.8
Dauphin
10.2
11.8
11.7
11.7
11.6
12
10.2
7.4
Delaware
9.1
10
10.9
10.2
10.6
10.6
9.3
6.8
Elk
9.9
10.7
10.8
11.3
10.3
9.6
8.6
6
Erie
11
11.3
11.9
12.5
10.6
10.9
10.7
6.9
Fayette
12.1
13.8
13.5
13.3
12.8
12.5
10.6
7.5
Forest
13.4
15.1
14.2
13.9
14.2
15
12.2
8.3
Franklin
12.8
13.8
14
14.6
13.2
13.5
12.3
9.4
Fulton
12.9
13.3
13.3
12.9
12.6
12.3
10.4
7.8
Greene
10.9
13.1
11.3
11.1
10.1
10.1
8.9
6.5
Huntingdon
12.8
15.3
12.3
12.7
11.5
11.8
10.5
7
Indiana
12
13.7
13.9
12.5
13.6
13.4
11.9
8.7
Jefferson
12.1
12.7
14.2
13.9
13
13
10.1
8.8
Juniata
13.6
14.3
15.6
14.4
14.1
14.1
13.3
9.9
Lackawanna
10.2
11.1
12.6
12.2
11.8
11.1
9.9
7.8
Lancaster
13.2
13.9
14.4
14.2
14.5
14
13.4
11.1
Lawrence
12.1
11.9
12.7
12.3
11.7
11.1
9.4
7.1
Lebanon
11.6
11.7
12.1
11.1
12.3
12.6
11.1
8.7
Lehigh
11.6
12
12.8
13.3
13.6
13
11.4
8.6
Luzerne
10.4
11.4
12.9
12.5
12.7
12.5
10.9
7.8
Lycoming
10.7
12.4
12.6
13.5
11.5
11.3
10.9
7.2
McKean
10.3
12.9
12.4
11.9
11.9
11.4
10.5
7.2
Mercer
10.7
11.9
12.1
12
10.7
11.5
10.2
7.9
Mifflin
12.9
14.5
15.8
14.9
14.3
13.5
13
10.7
Monroe
12.2
12.5
13.4
14.4
13.5
14
11.7
8.5
Montgomery
7.3
8
8.1
8.4
8
8.3
6.5
5.3
Montour
7.9
10
10
10.5
8.9
9
7.8
5
Northampton
9.8
11.4
11.1
11.1
11.2
11.3
9.4
6.9
Northumberland
12.1
13.3
13.3
13
12.9
12.4
12.1
7.3
Perry
12.9
12.1
14.2
14.4
12.8
13
11.5
9.3
Philadelphia
13.8
16.3
16.5
16.3
15.8
16.5
14.4
11
Pike
12.4
11.5
13.6
13.1
13.6
12.9
11.2
8.6
Potter
11.3
13.1
14.4
13.7
12.7
14
10.7
7.8
Schuylkill
10.7
12.1
12
12.3
12.3
11.9
10.6
7.9
Snyder
12.4
15.1
14
14.9
13.3
14.1
13.8
10.5
Somerset
13.3
14.1
15
13.9
12.8
13.4
10.9
8.7
Sullivan
15.6
14.8
15.9
14.3
14.7
17.1
13.4
8.9
Susquehanna
12.7
13.4
14.8
14
14.4
14.2
11.8
9.3
Tioga
12.7
14.7
14.7
14.2
13.4
12.5
11.4
8.6
Union
13.7
16.7
13.7
12.3
12
12.2
10.8
8.9
Venango
10.9
12.4
12.9
12.3
12.1
12.1
10.5
7.3
Warren
10
11.9
12.4
12.7
12.1
11.7
9.7
7.1
Washington
10.7
10.1
10.7
10.7
9.6
9.6
8.1
5.7
Wayne
13.2
13.2
14.8
13.5
12.9
13.1
10.7
8.1
Westmoreland
9.9
10.1
10.5
10.2
9.6
9.3
8.3
5.9
Wyoming
11
11.3
11.3
11.8
11.9
11.5
9.8
6.9
York
10.3
10.2
11.1
11.7
10.9
10.9
8.5
7.1
**Related Posts**

2014 Income and Poverty Update for Pennsylvania and Cambria County

 

The Impact of the ACA (Obamacare) in Utah and Pennsylvania by Ethnicity and Race