Tuesday, May 24, 2016

Clinton 7 Times More Likely to Win in States Where Trump Wins



GOP         
Dem
Clinton Win
Sanders win
Trump Win              
21
9
Trump Lose             
3
10

In my post from two weeks ago, I noticed that there were higher levels of hate group activity in states where Trump and Clinton won their primaries.  Does that mean that members of hate groups are more likely to support Clinton and Trump?  Not necessarily. 

The table at the top of this post shows the states won by Clinton and Sanders where the Republicans have also had their contests.  Fisher's Exact test shows that there is a significant association between states where Clinton wins and state where Trump wins.  The odds ratio of 7.37 says that Clinton is more than 7 times more likely to win in states where Trump wins than in states where he lost.


Fisher's Exact Test for Count Data

data:  z
p-value = 0.007189
alternative hypothesis: true odds ratio is not equal to 1
95 percent confidence interval:
  1.451117 51.760487
sample estimates:
odds ratio 
  7.366675 
 
 
As a follow up to my post from two weeks ago I also looked at the mean concentration of hate groups in the four groups of states (Trump win-Clinton win, Trump win-Sanders Win,
Trump lose-Clinton win, and Trump lose-Sanders Win).  The means are charted above.  The chart suggests greater hate group concentration in states where Trump & Clinton win with the lowest concentration being in states where Trump loses and Sanders wins.  It also suggests somewhat higher levels activity in states where Clinton wins as opposed to the states where Sanders wins.  The face that the lines are not parallel in the chart above suggests an additive effect of Trump and Clinton winning.  These effects were not significant in a two-way analysis of variance due to grossly unequal numbers of states contributing to each of the four means.

The "state" with the highest concentration of hate groups, DC at 26.8 groups/million residents, was not included because the Democrats won't have their contest there until June 14.  Trump placed third there.

The higher concentration of hate groups in states where Clinton and Trump win may reflect support from these groups on Trumps side while fear of these groups could be driving Clinton's support on her side.  This is borne out in the exit polls from these states with nonwhite voters overwhelmingly supporting Clinton in these states and with prominent white supremacists supporting Trump nationwide.

**Related Posts**

More Hate Groups in States Where Trump and Clinton Win (and in DC Where He Lost)

SPLC Hate Group Update: Washington, DC has an Increase in Activity

What Would a Trump Presidency Look Like?