Pages

Friday, April 15, 2016

Facebook and Twitter Primary: The Final Five




RCP % Avg
Facebook Followers
FB Engaged
Engagement Rate
FB Followers Dec
FB Gain
% chg FB
Twitter Followers APR
Twitter Dec
Twitter gain
% chg Twitter
Hillary Clinton
46.8
 3,163,408
   681,093
21.5
 2,160,862
 1,002,546
46.4
 5,940,469
 5,049,765
    890,704
17.6
Bernie Sanders
45.8
 3,882,973
1,064,851
27.4
 2,296,730
 1,586,243
69.1
 1,949,708
 1,105,792
    843,916
76.3

Donald Trump
39.0
6,976,226
1,209,706
17.3
 5,076,088
 1,900,138
37.4
 7,597,603
 5,483,626
 2,113,977
38.6
Ted Cruz
32.3
 2,117,036
   264,678
12.5
 1,741,989
    375,047
21.5
 1,045,319
    683,376
    361,943
53.0
John Kasich
20.5
    286,713
     51,027
17.8
    154,305
    132,408
85.8
    290,844
    148,238
    142,606
96.2

Since looking at the national Facebook and Twitter numbers in December, the Democratic numbers have tightened considerably and the Republican field has winnowed down from 17 candidates to 3.  Two of the three are there to prevent Donald Trump from getting the 1,237 delegates he needs to win the nomination on the first ballot.  Bernie Sanders continues to challenge Hillary Clinton's lead in delegates.


While pulling even with Hillary Clinton in the RCP national poll average Sanders has surpassed her in the number of Facebook followers, the number of followers engaged on Facebook, and gain in followers.  Hillary Clinton still has a big advantage in the number of followers on Twitter with 5.9 million to Sanders' 1.9 million.  According to the site Twitteraudit.com 79% of Clinton's Twitter followers are real while 89% of Sanders' followers are real.  Over this time period both candidates were about equal in the gain in followers with a larger % gain in Sanders account.

For the Republicans, Trump maintains a sizeable lead in Twitter and Facebook followers.  The number engaged is likewise high though the engagement rate is second to John Kasich.  Though in third place in the polls, Kasich has had the largest increase in followers on both sites in the % gain since December.  According to Twitteraudit.com 76% of Trump's Twitter followers are real, 83% of Cruz followers are real, and 88% of Kasich followers are real.

How much of a factor will the candidates social media presence play in the crucial upcoming primaries in New York, Pennsylvania, California and several other remaining states?  The answer seems to be yes for winning the nomination.  Will this presence translate into success in the general election?  So far for Donald Trump, who leads all candidates in Facebook and Twitter followers but not in the engagement rate, the answer is no when it comes to the general election polls.  In the long run, the number engaged with your posts may be what matters most for the candidates.

**Related Posts** 

Twitter and Facebook Primary Democratic Update: Engagement Matters Most

Twitter and Facebook Primary Update: The GOP Stretch Run

2016 Facebook Presidential Primary Update: Engagement and Gain

The Ethics of Social Media Manipulation