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Monday, March 21, 2016

Which Religious Group Supports Trump the Most?


Looking at Juan Cole's blog Informed Comment I came across this graph showing the preferences of the four major religious groups (Islam, Judaism, Protestant, and Catholic) in the US for the top 5 Presidential candidates from the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding.  The survey was conducted before Marco Rubio dropped out of the race.  The focus of the survey was how Muslims compare to other religious groups with respect to the 2016 election.  Predictably Muslims more strongly support Democrats Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders than the Republicans.  

The one number that jumped out at me n the graph at the top was the group that most strongly supported Donald Trump.  Donald Trump was supported by 4% of Muslims, 13% of Jews, 17% of Protestants and 28% of Catholics.  This number seems worth investigating.  Another graph in their report presented below shows that 47% of Protestants are more likely to identify as Republican compared to 34% of Catholics, 16% of Jews, and 6% of Muslims.  This comes as exit polls in the primaries show Trump doing well among evangelical or born again Christians with Ted Cruz doing better in some states. 
The graph below may shed some light Catholic support for Trump.  Immigration and National Security were listed as the top issues among Catholics while the economy and national security were listed as top among Protestants.  The economy was most important among the other groups.
It seems as though issues with the US and foreigners trumps the brief feud that Trump had with Pope Francis regarding his proposal to build a wall on the border with Mexico for 28% of US Catholics.  

**Update** 

Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders won the Utah Caucus handily over Trump where the state is 70% Mormon.  The LDS church (aka the Mormons) might be a good group to survey on their political preferences which may differ from mainline protestants and Catholics.

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