Monday, March 7, 2016

More Hate Groups in States Where Trump Wins


Donald J. Trump and former KKK leader David Duke
Last week I posted on how the number of hate groups in the US changed after adjusting for the population in each stateThe Southern Poverty Law Center attributed the increase in hate groups to hateful rhetoric in the 2016 election from Donald Trump including the endorsement of Donald Trump by former KKK leader David Duke. Before I did not have data to test this hypothesis but as of today there have been 19 state GOP and Democratic contests,  Trump has won 12 of them, Ted Cruz has won six, and Marco Rubio has won one.  Trump's lowest finish was third in Minnesota where Rubio won.

Trump Primary Placement vs. Hate Groups/million in that state
Trump 1st
Trump 2nd
Trump 3rd
Mean
4.15
2.04
1.09
Median
4.49
1.66
1.09


I looked at the concentration of hate groups (in groups per million) in states where Trump won vs. the ones where he did not.  There was a statistically significant association in the hate group rate  way Trump placed in each primary or caucus.  The states where Trump placed first had a mean of 4.15 groups per million residents and a median of 4.49 groups per million which suggests minimal skewness in the data.  The states where Trump placed second had a mean of 2.04 groups/million and a median of 1.66 groups/million and the only state where Trump placed third, Minnesota, had a rate of 1.09 groups/million.  The plot below shows the best fit straight line for the state group rates versus the placement of Trump in the states.


When looking at the 19 Democratic contests Hillary Clinton has won 11 states and Bernie Sanders has won eight as of this writing  There is a higher mean hate group rate in the Clinton states with 3.84 groups.million in the Clinton states and 2.94 groups/million in the Sanders states but this difference is not statistically significant (p>0.05).  Clinton has won several of the states in the south with high rates that Trump has won but Clinton has won other states such as Iowa and Massachusetts with relatively low rates.

An interesting question is how will Washington, DC vote in the GOP primary.  It has a rate far higher than any other state at 26.78 groups/million.  Will it go to Trump with David Duke's help?
  **Related Posts**

SPLC Hate Group Update: Washington, DC has an Increase in Activity

A Wave of Hate Groups in California? No in Washington, DC

Terrorism Boost for Trump?