Wednesday, February 17, 2016

The Facebook Primary at the State and County Level



Candidatevs. U.S.
Carson
Sanders
Trump
Cruz
Clinton
Rubio
Bush
Kasich

In the past, I have looked at the Presidential candidates' Facebook likes (I called them followers) and how they correlate with their poll averages.  Nate Silver's website FiveThirtyEight has come out with an interactive map showing the percentage of Facebook likes for the candidates at the national, state, and county level where you can see the totals for each.  Above are the percentages for the entire US.  The Democratic and the Republican candidates are grouped together.  Below are the % likes for the state of Nevada which has it's caucus on February 20 for the Democrats and on February 23 for the GOP.  . 

  Nevada

Candidatevs. U.S.
Trump +2
Cruz +1
Sanders +1
Rubio
Clinton
Bush
Kasich
Carson -4


The National numbers differ from the total likes (or followers in my terminology) that I found when I surveyed their pages in December.  These numbers may be skewed because they could include like from outside the US. but in it's defense they are highly correlated with RCP poll averages at the time for Democrats and Republicans respectively.  Five thirty eight has access to data that I don't. 

I double checked the number of followers or likes on the candidates pages.  Hillary Clinton has 2,482,412 total likes on Facebook with 620,722 engaged for an engagement rate of 0.25.  Bernie Sanders has 2,849,642 total likes with 901,049 engaged for an engagement rate of 0.32.  Donald Trump has 5,756,951 total likes with 1,544,069 engaged for an engagement rate of 0.27.  Ben Carson has 5,075,553 total likes with 618,028 engaged for an engagement rate of 0.12.  I don't have access to the data for where the likes for each candidate are coming from but it suggests that the candidates are much closer in total likes than the Five Thirty Eight numbers are.  Since December, Carson has gained about 54,863 likes, Trump has gained 680,863 likes, Sanders has gained 552,912 likes, and Clinton has gained 321,550 likes.  

Total likes not the only measure in the Facebook Primary.  Carson acquired most of his likes when he was at the top of the polls in November.  He is now near the bottom of the polls as the gain in likes and the engagement rate suggest. 




Twitter followers
FB Followers Dec
Engaged FB Dec
engagement rate Dec
Gain in FB Followers
RCP Dec Poll Avg
Hillary Clinton
5,049,765
2,160,862
450,105
0.208
951,683
53.3%
Bernie Sanders
1,105,792
2,296,730
425,935
0.185
1,071,178
32%
Martin O’Malley
119.145
104,179
2,516
0.024
27,226
3.5%
Donald Trump
5,483,626
5,076,088
1,867,698
0.36794
1,793,480
36.5
Ted Cruz
683,376
1,741,989
311,803
0.178993
356,113
17.8
Mike Huckabee
432,248
1,860,884
92,161
0.049525
33,461
1.8
Rick Santorum
250,712
268,813
5,538
0.020602
4,017
0.5
Ben Carson
1,079,406
5,020,690
896,424
0.178546
2,602,687
9.3
Rand Paul
753,468
2,091,438
326,094
0.155919
31,008
2.5
Jeb Bush
408,115
309,478
47,112
0.152231
58,747
4.2
Marco Rubio
1,039,434
1,174,934
70,009
0.059585
196,533
11.3
Chris Christie
77,049
142,603
13,530
0.094879
23,735
4.2
Carly Fiorina
642,870
536,919
23,281
0.04336
255,282
2.2
John Kasich
148,238
154,305
6,159
0.039914
16,092
2
George Pataki
82,930
20,138
151
0.007498
1,808
0.2
Jim Gilmore
2,612
8,660
7,415
0.856236
8,660
0
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