Friday, February 26, 2016

SPLC Hate Group Update: Washington, DC has an Increase in Activity

In 2014 the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) produced the above map showing the location of hate groups that they are tracking with a total of 939 groups nationwide.  The four states with the highest number of groups were California, Florida, Texas, and New York.  As these are the four states with the highest population I thought it would be interesting to see what the number of hate groups would look like if they were adjusted for population by dividing the hate group total by the population of that state expressed in groups per million residents.  The top states for the adjusted hate group numbers were the District of Columbia (23.72 groups/million residents), Arkansas (8.12 groups/million), Montana (7.96 groups/million), Mississippi (7.37 groups/million), and Vermont (6.39 groups/million).  

The map below shows the updated group map for the year 2015 with 892 groups nationwide (a decrease of 47 groups from 2013) Just by eyeballing the map one can see that there is a higher concentration of groups in the eastern half of the US with it being higher in the southeast.

The total number of hate groups decreased from 939 groups to 784 in 2014 and then increased to 892. Adjusting the national total for the size of the US population suggests a rate of 2.99 groups per million in 2013 and 2.78 groups per million in 2015.  This decrease in the national rate suggests a decrease in hate group activity from 2013. Adjusting the state totals for population and looking at the change in rates can shed where the hot spots of activity are.   I don't have the state total hate groups for 2014 so I will look at changes from 2013 to 2015.  The SPLC attributes the increase in groups (which is the first since 2011) to the bellicose rhetoric in the 2016 election. 



There were two states with zero hate groups: Alaska (down from 1.37 groups/million in 2013) and Hawaii (no change from 2013).  There were 12 states with increases in the number of groups from 2013 to 2015   The states with the five highest rates in 2015 were the District of Columbia (6.78 groups/million), Arkansas (7.39 groups/million), Mississippi (6.35 groups/million), Tennessee (6.21 groups/million), and South Dakota (5.82 groups/million).

The state with the highest increase in the total number of groups is Texas with an increase from 57 total groups in 2013 to 84 in 2015.  Adjusting for Texas population in both years the rate increased from 2.19 groups/million in 2013 to 3.06 groups per million.  The increase in the rate over two years 0.87 groups/million.  This was the fifth highest increase in the state rate presented in the table below.  

The state with the fourth highest increase in the hate group rate was Delaware which had an increase in the number of groups from 4 to 5 with a small increase in population.  The rate increased from 4.39 to 5.29.  North and South Dakota had the 3rd and 2nd highest increases in their rates respectively with an increase of 1.21 groups/million in ND and an increase of 2.22 groups/million.

The state with the highest increase in the population adjusted rate was the District of Columbia with an increase from 23.72 groups/million in 2013 to 26.78 in 2015.  There was an increase of 3 groups over this period to 18 with a relatively small population increase.  Some would argue that DC has a large African American population (they are 49% of the population) would these groups include African-American separatist groups like the Nation of Islam.  Five of the 18 groups in DC have this classification.  If they are excluded from the total that leaves 13 groups for a rate of 19.34 groups/million which increased from 17.40 in 2013.

The states with the largest decreases in the rates were New Jersey with a decrease of 23 total groups of 2.61 groups/million followed by Nebraska with a decrease of 2.21 groups per million, by Montana at 2.15, Vermont at 1.60, and Indiana at 1.56.
 
The head of the Southern Poverty Law Center was on Democracy Now! to discuss their method for classifying groups as hate groups. He admits that the number of hate groups that they track is an undercount but their count is the most authoritative on the subject.  The increase in certain parts of the country could be due to the election campaignSix of the 12 states with the an increase in the hate group rate voted democratic in 2012 but only four of the top 12 states with the highest rates in 2015 voted democratic.
state
Pop ‘13
Hate groups '13
Groups per million (GPM) '13
Hate groups '15
Pop '15
Groups per million  (GPM) '15
Change in groups
change in rate
United States
314,102,623
939
2.99
892
321,418,820
2.78
-47
-0.21
Alabama
4,822,023
22
4.56
22
4,858,979
4.53
0
-0.03
Alaska
731,449
1
1.37
0
738,432
0
-1
-1.37
Arizona
6,553,255
20
3.05
18
6,828,065
2.64
-2
-0.41
Arkansas
2,949,131
24
8.14
22
2,978,204
7.39
-2
-0.75
California
38,041,430
77
2.02
68
39,144,818
1.74
-9
-0.28
Colorado
5,187,582
17
3.28
16
5,456,574
2.93
-1
-0.35
Connecticut
3,590,347
5
1.39
2
3,590,886
0.56
-3
-0.83
Delaware
917,092
4
4.36
5
945,934
5.29
1
0.93
District of Columbia
632,323
15
23.72
18
672,228
26.78
3
3.06
Florida
19,317,568
58
3
58
20,271,272
2.86
0
-0.14
Georgia
9,919,945
50
5.04
39
10,214,860
3.82
-11
-1.22
Hawaii
1,392,313
0
0
0
1,431,603
0
0
0
Idaho
1,595,728
9
5.64
8
1,654,930
4.83
-1
-0.81
Illinois
12,875,255
23
1.79
23
12,859,995
1.79
0
-0.00151
Indiana
6,537,334
26
3.98
16
6,619,680
2.42
-10
-1.56
Iowa
3,074,186
5
1.63
5
3,123,899
1.60
0
-0.03
Kansas
2,885,905
5
1.73
5
2,911,641
1.71
0
-0.01
Kentucky
4,380,415
15
3.42
13
4,425,092
2.94
-2
-0.48
Louisiana
4,601,893
20
4.35
21
4,670,724
4.50
1
0.15
Maine
1,329,192
2
1.5
2
1,329,328
1.50
0
0
Maryland
5,884,563
15
2.55
15
6,006,401
2.50
0
-0.05
Massachusetts
6,646,144
12
1.81
10
6,794,422
1.47
-2
-0.34
Michigan
9,883,360
18
1.82
19
9,922,576
1.91
1
0.10
Minnesota
5,379,139
8
1.49
6
5,489,594
1.09
-2
-0.40
Mississippi
2,984,926
22
7.37
19
2,992,333
6.35
-3
-1.02
Missouri
6,021,988
23
3.82
22
6,083,672
3.62
-1
-0.20
Montana
1,005,141
8
7.96
6
1,032,949
5.81
-2
-2.15
Nebraska
1,855,525
9
4.85
5
1,896,190
2.64
-4
-2.21
Nevada
2,758,931
8
2.9
4
2,890,845
1.38
-4
-1.52
New Hampshire
1,320,718
7
5.3
6
1,330,608
4.51
-1
-0.79
New Jersey
8,864,590
44
4.96
21
8,958,013
2.34
-23
-2.62
New Mexico
2,085,538
6
2.88
3
2,085,109
1.44
-3
-1.44
New York
19,570,261
42
2.15
44
19,795,791
2.22
2
0.07
North Carolina
9,752,073
33
3.38
29
10,042,802
2.89
-4
-0.49
North Dakota
699,628
1
1.43
2
756,927
2.64
1
1.21
Ohio
11,544,225
31
2.69
34
11,613,423
2.93
3
0.24
Oklahoma
3,814,820
17
4.46
17
3,911,338
4.35
0
-0.11
Oregon
3,899,353
9
2.31
9
4,028,977
2.23
0
-0.08
Pennsylvania
12,763,536
41
3.21
40
12,802,503
3.12
-1
-0.09
Rhode Island
1,050,292
3
2.86
3
1,056,298
2.84
0
-0.02
South Carolina
4,723,723
20
4.23
22
4,896,146
4.49
2
0.26
South Dakota
833,354
3
3.6
5
858,469
5.82
2
2.22
Tennessee
6,456,243
37
5.73
41
6,600,299
6.21
4
0.48
Texas
26,059,203
57
2.19
84
27,469,114
3.06
27
0.87
Utah
2,855,287
6
2.1
3
2,995,919
1.00
-3
-1.10
Vermont
626,011
4
6.39
3
626,042
4.79
-1
-1.60
Virginia
8,185,867
26
3.18
32
8,382,993
3.82
6
0.64
Washington
6,897,012
10
1.45
8
7,170,351
1.12
-2
-0.33
West Virginia
1,855,413
10
5.39
8
1,844,128
4.34
-2
-1.05
Wisconsin
5,726,398
10
1.75
9
5,771,337
1.56
-1
-0.19
Wyoming
576,412
2
3.47
2
586,107
3.41
0
-0.06
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