Thursday, January 7, 2016

Twitter and Facebook Primary Democratic Update: Engagement Matters Most




FB Followers Dec
Engaged Dec
Engagement rate Dec
Gain in FB Followers
Twitter followers
RCP Poll Avgerage Dec
Hillary Clinton
2,160,862
450,105
0.208
951,683
5,049,765
53.3%
Bernie Sanders
2,296,730
425,935
0.185
1,071,178
1,105,792
32%
Martin O’Malley
104,179
2,516
0.024
27,226
119.145
3.5%

With only three data points in the Democratic race for President, there is too little power for statistical tests as there were for the GOP..  However the correlation coefficients still describe the strength of the relationship between their Facebook and Twitter followings. The correlation matrix below shows high correlations with each of the measures.  Of the Facebook and Twitter variables, the engagement rate (the # engaged divided by the total # of followers) was most strongly correlated with their Real Clear Politics Polling Average at 0.947 (on a scale of -1 to +1) accounting for 89.7% of the variability.  The scatter lot below shows the relationship with Clinton slightly above the best fit straight line and Sanders slightly below.


FB Followers Dec
Engaged Dec
Engagement rate Dec
Gain in FB Followers
Twitter followers
RCP Dec
FB Followers Dec
1
Engaged Dec
0.995
1
Engagement rate Dec
0.986
0.998
1
Gain in FB Followers
0.999
0.988
0.976
1
Twitter followers
0.612
0.690
0.737
0.572
1
RCP Dec
0.880
0.924
0.947
0.855
0.914
1
  

The pattern of correlations among the Democrats differs slightly from the Republicans in that the GOP candidates' Twitter following is most highly correlated with their poll averages (even if one excludes Donald Trump from the data).  The level of engagement on Facebook is the second highest correlation for the GOP as well as the highest for the Democrats.  This suggests that at this point in the campaign, the level of social media consumers engaging with the candidates Facebook posts through sharing with their friends, clicking and clicking the like button  (and presumably their tweets as well by retweeting) is what is most closely associated with their popularity nationally.  For both parties time will tell if engagement is enough to predict their support.  

According to the website Twitter Audit, 59% of Clinton's supporters or 2.9 million are real (human) and 89% of Sanders' 1.1million Twitter followers are real.  The website did not audit Martin O'Malley.

  **Related Posts**

Twitter and Facebook Primary Update: The GOP Stretch Run

 

Bernie Sanders is as Electable as Clinton


2016 Facebook Presidential Primary Update: Engagement and Gain 

 

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