Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Post Paris Politics, Fear of Refugees, and Medicaid

The horrific attacks in Paris have sent a wave of fear around the world.  As of this writing, 28 governors in the US have said that they will not accept refugees from the civil war in Syria for fear that ISIS members will sneak into their states.  26 of these 28 governors (84%) are Republican.  10 out of the 18 Democratic governors (55%) have said that they will accept these refugees.  This difference is significant according to Fisher's exact test (p < 0.001).  The full numbers are displayed in the table below and the political affiliation of each states' governor is displayed below that.



Accepting Syrian 
Refugees     
Governor Political Party (% of Party)
D
I
R
Total
  no        
2 (11%)
0
26 (84%)
28
  undecided    
6 (33%)
1 (100%)
5 (16%)
12
  yes      
10 (55%)
0
0
10
Total
18
1
31
50

I have written extensively about which states have been willing to expand medicaid under the Affordable Care Act.  Below is a current map of the states expanding Medicaid.  Currently none of the 17 states which are refusing or considering to expand medicaid are accepting refugees. 10 states (all with Democratic governors) which are implementing some form of Medicaid expansion. are accepting refugees.  This difference is not as sharp as that for states with Republican Governors (p=0.003).

Accepting Syrian Refugees     
Expanding Medicaid (% of Column)
considering
no
yes
Total
  no        
1 (20%)
14 (82%)
13 (46%)
28
  undecided    
4 (80%)
3 (18%)
5 (18%)
12
  yes      
0
0
10 (36%)
10
Total
5
17
28
50
 

  Where the States Stand
Via: The Advisory Board Company

The relationship between the party affiliation of governors and medicaid expansion is similar to that of accepting refugees and medicaid expansion (p=0.004).  16 out of 31 republican governors (52%) are either expanding or considering to expand Medicaid.  It could be that the party that controls the governor's mansion changed in the last election in states that are expanding.  Kentucky just elected a new republican governor who is promising to reverse expansion but other republican governors such as Chris Christie (NJ) and John Kasich (Oh) have implemented expansion and have not suffered adverse political consequences (but may have in their Presidential Campaigns). 



Political Party of Governor     
Expanding Medicaid (% of Column)
considering
no
yes
Total
  D
1 (20%)
2 (12%)
15 (54%)
18
  I   
1 (20%)
0
0
1
  R      
3 (60%)
15 (88%)
13 (46%)
31
Total
5
17
28
50


This analysis shows that there is high probability of a partisan component to the governors not wanting Syrian refugees in their state.  This shift in medicaid expansion among republican governors could similarly happen with the right public pressure for the Syrian refugees (even Jeb Bush who is advocating that only Syrian Christians be allowed in the US)Below is a discussion of the the true nature of the refugees from Syria.

**Related Posts**



The Affordable Care Act Having an Impact in Some States but not Pennsylvania

Immigration: An International Issue

 

The World Wars and Today's Wars