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Tuesday, November 10, 2015

Bernie Sanders is as Electable as Clinton


I went to a nice rally for Bernie Sanders in Las Vegas on a cold Sunday with 2,000 people coming to hear Bernie Sanders speak.  I took the video below from it.  Sorry that it was turned on it's side.  I am often asked "Does Bernie Sanders have a chance?"  In the first Democratic Debate, Anderson Cooper said that in a poll 50% of Americans would not vote for a socialist.  This is the justification for his unelectability for some in the media.

video

Of course Sanders is trailing right now in the national polls to Hillary Clinton (especially now since Joe Biden Says that he is not running).   Of course Obama was trailing by 20% or more at this point in the 2008 Campaign.  He did not catch up until the January 2008 when the primaries began.

A McClatchy/Marist poll came out yesterday comparing Clinton and Sanders in a two-way race to each of the top 6 Republican candidates.  The difference in their poll numbers is listed in the table below.  A negative difference means that the GOP candidate is leading.  The margin of error for each poll was +/- 4.2%.  Poll differences that are within the margin of error are in italics and are in bold because they are in a statistical tie.  

Clinton is significantly ahead of 5 of the 6 candidates and is tied with Ben Carson.  Sanders is significantly ahead of 4 of the 6 candidates and is tied with Carson and Rubio.  When the poll differences are averaged across the 6 GOP candidates, Clinton has a mean advantage of 8.33% and Sanders has an advantage of 8.17%.  The difference between these two mean differences is not statistically significant by the paired groups t-test (p=0.945).  The standard deviation (a measure of spread) was somewhat higher for Sanders but this difference was also not significant.



% Difference between Candidate Clinton and Sanders and the top 6 GOP Candidates (negative means GOP Lead. MOE=+/-4.2%)

Clinton
Sanders
p-value
Trump
15
12

Bush
8
10

Carson
2
-2

Fiorina
10
14

Rubio
5
3

Cruz
10
12

Mean
8.33
8.17
0.945
St. Dev
4.50
6.27
0.247

Of course this is just one poll.  I looked at the Real Clear Politics poll averages of hypothetical general election match ups for Sanders and Clinton.  Clinton had a mean advantage of 1.53% and Sanders had an advantage of 1.23%.  This difference was likewise not significant at p=0.642.  Clinton had more polls comparing her to GOP opponents than Sanders did so I decided not to present those differences in a table.  You can see them at the Real Clear Politics website.


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