Pages

Saturday, June 6, 2015

2016 Facebook Presidential Primary Update: Engagement and Gain

Now that the Presidential candidate field has expanded to 20 with Donald Trump pretending to be a legitimate candidate, I thought I'd look at how their Facebook pages have progressed.  I looked at how they have gained followers and how the level of engagement relates to the number of followers.  Rand Paul had the highest gain in followers (those who click like on the page) at 78,429 followed closely by Ben Caron at 74,383.  Rand Paul is now the first in either party to surpass 2 million total followers.  Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton far out-gained the Democratic field with gains of 52,423 and 32,263 followers respectively.  Though Lincoln Chafee announced his candidacy this week, he has not set up an official page.  George Pataki was a surprise announcement and there is no gain score for him.  In the table at the bottom, all of the candidates pages are linked to the names in the table below.  The numbers on the links may differ from the numbers in the table so you can track how their numbers change since this posting.

The level of engagement (called "people who are talking about this" on the Facebook page) is the number of people who have either clicked on a post from the page, clicked like on a post from the page, commented on a page post, or shared a post with their Facebook page.
Rand Paul again leads the Republican field with 281,904 engaged (probably due to his opposition to the Patriot Act).  In the Democratic field, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 164,721 to 136,722 in this category.

The engagement rate is a measure of the level of enthusiasm by page followers.  It is simply the number engaged divided by the total followers.  George Pataki leads all candidates in this category with 29% followed by Bernie Sanders at 26%, Martin O'Malley at 22% and surprisingly Carly Fiorina at 21%.  Pataki,O'Malley and Fiorina have a relatively small number of followers at 15,391, 70,748 and 60,165 respectively.

Comparing the candidates across parties,  As can be seen in the table immediately below, the Republicans have more followers per candidate but the Democrats (and socialist Bernie Sanders) had a higher average gain in followers and a higher rate of engagement on their pages. 




Republican
N
Mean
Std. Deviation
Presidential followers June
Yes
15
660330.60
692891.882
No
5
465180.40
405045.637
Gain in Followers, June
Yes
14
15144.07
26227.543
No
5
19565.60
22157.034
Engagement Rate, June
Yes
15
10.15%
7.309%
No
5
15.74%
9.865%





Candidate
Presidential followers June
Gain in Followers, June
Level of engagement June
Engagement Rate, June
Republican
No
871449
32263
164721
.19
530262
52423
136772
.26
70478
4764
15535
.22
Lincoln Chafee
.
.
.
.
831968
8122
8998
.01
21745
256
2366
.11
Yes
1249160
4762
134836
.11
1743599
9519
231343
.13
261168
1982
17289
.07
1487589
74383
168658
.11
2001304
78429
281904
.14
111795
3914
10982
.10
178172
1888
4681
.03
283102
4901
24483
.09
874898
13893
83916
.10
104785
619
3014
.03
1183094
8979
40992
.03
243034
3504
5174
.02
60165
4765
12713
.21
107703
479
7320
.07
15,391

4,512

29

**Update**

Just when I thought I had the Presidential field covered, Donald Trump decides to join in.  Well here are his Facebook page's numbers.  He has 1,792,016 followers, and 113,658 new followers in the last week, 53,880 engaged with his page.  Dividing 53,880 by 1,792,016 gives an engagement rate of .03 or 3% which places him even with Jeb Bush, Rick Perry, and Chris Christie among Republicans.

**Related posts**

The 2016 Facebook Presidential Primary

 

Houston, TX: A Hotbed of Conservative Facebook Activity?

 

Rick Perry's Efforts to Save Us All


Santorum's "Bounce"