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Friday, August 30, 2013

Does the Preseason Matter for the Regular Season?

Last night I watched the Steelers finish the 2013 preseason 0-4.  The commentators were saying that it's probably won't be a playoff season for them.  I thought why not take a look at the numbers to see if there is a pattern. Last year the Steelers were 3-1 in preseason but finished 8-8 in the regular season and missed the playoffs.  

I did a correlational analysis to see if there is a relationship between preseason winning percentage and regular season.  There was no statistically significant relationship between the pre and regular season (p=0.475) with the preseason winning % accounting for only 1.7% of the variability in the regular season %.  Of the three teams who were winless in the preseason, the Dolphins, Bills, and Jets, none of them finished above 0.500 but this is a small sample to make generalizations.  Two teams, the Seahawks and Eagles, were undefeated in the
preseason, the Seahawks finished 11-5 and made the playoffs while the Eagles finished 4-12. The two Super Bowl Teams from last year, the Ravens and 49ers, coached by the Harbaugh brothers, were 2-2 and 3-1 in the preseason and 10-6 and 11-4-1 in the regular season respectively.  The Ravens won 34-31.


As a comparison I compared the Major League Baseball 2012 exhibition season winning % to the regular season which has 10 times as many games in the regular season and about 30 games in the exhibition which gives better separation.  There is an even weaker relationship among the teams (p=0.746) accounting for 0.2% of the variability.  This year the Pirates had the third worst record in exhibition in the National League with a percentage of 0.419 and are now
contending for the division title with a percentage of 0.579.  The 2012 World Series was won by the San Francisco Giants, who for 51% of their exhibition games and 58% of their regular season games, over the Detroit Tigers in a 4-0 sweep.  The Tigers won 71% of their exhibition games and 54% of their regular season games.

I have made a reversal of my policy about Amazon.  I will advertise specific authors but not Amazon.com.  I have received few sales but little interest from other vendors.  I encourage you to go to check out the authors I advertise and buy the books that interest you where you see fit.

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