Thursday, July 27, 2017

Parallels between 2010 and Todays Healthcare Debate


All of the hoopla over the Russia investigation may be providing a needed temporary distraction from Mitch McConnell's efforts to ram through the repeal and possible replacement of the Affordable Care Act (aka ACA or Obamacare).  John McCain's speech on the Senate floor provided some added drama for the vote to simply allow debate on the bill to move forward.  In their zeal to get something passed how much are they thinking about their impact on ordinary folks?

Looking back on the struggles to get the ACA passed in 2009-2010 we see some parallels to today's debate.  The Democrats had a super majority of 60 votes in the Senate but with the threat of a filibuster, could not afford any defections to pass a bill.  No Republicans supported the ACA (including Susan Collins).  One of the largest sticking points back the was the public option.  The two holdouts for passing the law were Senators Ben Nelson and Joe Lieberman.  They opposed the public option.  There were other disagreements over whether abortion and other procedures would be covered.

This time around the Republicans have a bare majority in the Senate and can afford at least one defection from support for the law to prevent it from passing.  Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski were the lone holdouts on the vote to have a debate on the bill (both voted against the ACA in 2010).  However there are several potential holdouts for the final vote.  One glaring difference between the two situations is this time the GOP is voting on the bill under budget reconciliation which cannot be filibustered.  Seven years ago the Democrats could have voted on the ACA with a public option under reconciliation but chose not to.  



Adding to the drama over the laws passage was sen. Ted Kennedy's brain cancer.  He did not live to see the vote.  His replacement, Martha Coakley lost the special election to former cosmopolitan model republican Scott Brown.  McCain will stay on with brain cancer to avoid the risk of losing his seat before the final vote which is expected soon but it's a race against time just as it is a race against time for us.

Seven years ago the GOP hammered Nancy Pelosi for saying "we have to pass the bill to find out what's in it."  Now few people really know what's in the GOP bill.  Bills always get rewritten and amended right before they come up for a vote.


Wednesday, July 12, 2017

Hillary Clinton Won Johnstown, PA -- By 83 Votes



ward
Hillary
Trump
Margin

n
%
n
%
n
%
Hillary win
eleventh ward
98
51.9
84
44.4
14
7.5
1
Kernville
152
60.8
91
36.4
61
24.4
1
Prospect
170
82.1
34
16.4
136
65.7
1
7th ward
343
63.4
177
32.7
166
30.7
1
17th ward-1
184
50.7
159
43.8
25
6.9
1
17th ward-2
213
44.5
238
49.7
-25
-5.2
0
17th ward-3
152
43.7
186
53.4
-34
-9.7
0
17th ward-4
100
42.6
123
52.3
-23
-9.7
0
18th ward
129
38.7
186
55.9
-57
-17.2
0
19th ward
182
43.5
221
52.9
-39
-9.4
0
20th ward-1
233
41.9
298
53.6
-65
-11.7
0
20th ward-2
208
51.5
182
45
26
6.5
1
21st ward
97
35.9
166
61.5
-69
-25.6
0
8th ward-1
34
51.5
26
39.4
8
12.1
1
8th ward-2
116
42.5
144
52.7
-28
-10.2
0
8th ward-3
277
37
434
57.9
-157
-20.9
0
Cambria City
85
48.9
74
42.5
11
6.4
1
Johnstown-Center-1
108
59.7
66
36.5
42
23.2
1
Johnstown-Center-2
108
63.9
55
32.5
53
31.4
1
Johnstown-Old Conemaugh
131
56
93
39.7
38
16.3
1
total
3120
48.4
3037
47.1
83
1.3
11

Much has been written about how Donald Trump carried Cambria County with 66.8% of the vote or more than two out of every three who voted.  The BBC, New York Times and other national media outlets have come here to do reports on how a once staunchly democratic county could vote so overwhelmingly for Trump.  However when one looks at the precinct and/or city level a more complex picture emerges.  There are 133 precincts in the county.  This post will look at the 20 precincts in its largest city, Johnstown, PA.  

The table above shows the vote totals for Clinton and Trump.  When their votes are totaled across the 20 precincts, Clinton won by 83 votes or 1.3% of the total cast.  Hillary Clinton won 11 of these precincts (highlighted in blue) and Donald Trump won 9.  The African American precincts of Prospect (82.1%), Johnstown Center-2 (63.9%), Seventh Ward (63.4%), and Kernville (60.8%) were strongest for Clinton while the 21st ward was strongest for Trump (61.5%) followed by the 8th ward precinct 3 (57.9%).

While Clinton won more precincts in Johnstown the precincts where Trump won had a higher average or mean turnout.  The precinct where Trump won had a mean turnout of 406.8 voters while the one where Clinton won had an average turnout of 252.8 voters.  This may be due to either there being more people in these precincts more registered voters or both.  While Clinton was victorious in Johnstown the voting data suggest a high degree of polarization as the video below shows.


ABC Breaking News | Latest News Videos

  **Related Posts**

Education and Race Account for Outliers in Trump's Vote at the State and PA County Level


Educational Attainment and the % Uninsured Explain Trump's % of the Vote with Philly Considered



Cambria State Senate and House Races