Saturday, May 23, 2015

The 2016 Facebook Presidential Primary




pundit
Followers as a Pundit
Followers as a Pres Candidate
Gain Since Running
Presidential Candidate
1
Ted Cruz
1100000
1244398
144398
2
Mike Huckabee
1600000
1734080
134080
3
Rick Santorum
263000
259186
-3814
4
Ben Carson
1100000
1413206
313206
5
Rand Paul
1800000
1922875
122875
6
Lindsey Graham
94451
107881
13430

Last January I did a post looking at the Facebook pages of 17 liberal and 17 conservative pundits.  Of those six conservative pundits are now running for President as Republicans.  I looked at how the number of followers have changed since they have been running for President and are summarized in the table above.  These 6 candidates gained an average 120,695.83 followers since January (Rick Santorum was the only one with a net loss of 3,814 followers over this period while Ben Carson had the largest gain).  This gain is statistically significant according to the paired groups t-test (p=0.045).

As for the most popular age groups for each candidate, Ben Carson expanded from the 25-34 age group in January to the 25-34 and the 45-54 age groups.  Rick Santorum (though he lost followers) expanded his most popular age group from 45-54 years to 45-64 years.  The remainder had the 65+ age group as most popular in January and May.

I put together a list of candidates who have either hinted at running or have declared with the number of followers on their pages (as of this writing), the most popular city on their page, and the post popular age group.  This information can be found on the mobile version of Facebook.  As expected Hillary Clinton leads the Democratic field and the only other declared candidate , Bernie Sanders, has 43% fewer followers.  Though she insists she is not running, Elizabeth Warren, with 1.4 million followers,would be leading this primary with the 55+ age group as most popular and Los Angeles, CA as the most popular city.  Lincoln Chafee (former Sen/Gov of Rhode Island) has hinted at running but has not set up a page yet.  It's not clear if Joe Biden is running.



Rand Paul is leading the Republican field with 1.9m followers followed closely by Mike Huckabee at 1.7 million.  Huckabee used his page to defend Josh Duggar.  By comparison Sarah Palin still has 4.2 million followers with Houston, TX as the most popular city and 45-54 age group as most popular.  However she has had a 72,888 decrease since January but would still be leading this primary if she were running.  Ted Cruz (who was elected to the Senate with Sarah Palin's help) is fourth among declared candidates.  I will monitor the candidates pages and see how it may transfer into actual primary votes.




Candidate
Followers as a Pres Candidate
Most Popular City Since Becoming Candidate
Most Popular Age Group as Candidate
Dem
1
Hillary Clinton
839,186
New York, NY
25-34
2
Bernie Sanders
477,839
New York, NY
55+
3
Martin O'Malley
65,714
Baltimore, MD
25-34
4
Lincoln Chafee
.

.
5
Joe Biden
823,846
New York, NY
25-34
6
Jim Webb
21,489
Washington, DC
19-24
GOP
1
Ted Cruz
1,244,398
Houston, TX
65+
2
Mike Huckabee
1,734,080
Perth, Australia
65+
3
Rick Santorum
259,186
Pittsburgh, PA
45-64
4
Ben Carson
1,413,206
Houston, TX
25-35 and 45-54
5
Rand Paul
1,922,875
Houston, TX
65+
6
Lindsey Graham
107,881
Columbia, SC
65+
7
Jeb Bush
176,284
Miami, FL
65+
8
Scott Walker
278,201
Milwaukee, WI
45-54 and 65+
9
Marco Rubio
861,005
Miami, FL
65+
10
Chris Christie
104,166
New York, NY
35-54
11
Rick Perry
1,174,115
Houston, TX
65+
12
Bobby Jindal
239,530
Baton Rouge, LA
35-54
13
Carly Fiorina
55,400
Los Angeles, CA
45-54
14
John Kasich
107,224
Columbus, OH
45-64

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